FED ikväll >> to be or not to be !!

Hur reagerar marknaden på en väntande minskning av stödköp ? Blir det mer eller mindre ? Och när börjar det?

Mindre eller inget tror jag på. Ekonomin växer fortfarande för sakta over there..

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"Keep it simple stupid, and don't fall in love with the down side!"

Markets Will Move If The Taper Is Bigger Than $10 Billion

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/blankfein-on-taper-2013-9#ixzz2fFUJaw00

How stocks may react to the Federal Reserve decision

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/09/17/how-stocks-may-react-to-the-federal-reserve-decision/

FOMC day data for this year (as usual, IWM, measured from the open)

Jan Open -0.1% HOD 0.1% LOD -1.4% Close -1.2%

Mar Open 0.6% HOD 0.3% LOD -0.1% Close 0.9%

May Open -0.3% HOD 0.1% LOD -2.2% Close -2.4%

Jun Open 0.0% HOD 0.2% LOD -1.4% Close -1.2%

Jul Open 0.4% HOD 0.8% LOD -0.3% Close 0.2%

det blir en reversal

en spik upp och sedan stängning på dagslägsta

Något postivt :)))

Den var bra.

Ben har fått loss pungen ur tryckpress 4 och nu kan även den startas ;)

I practically told you so! Look above!

Gott, nu öser portföljen in stålar i några månader till, över årskiftet kanske till och med?

Sköööönt att vara fullinvesterad! :)

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"Keep it simple stupid, and don't fall in love with the down side!"

1) A rally if expectations met: Stocks could deliver a “buy the news” rally if the Fed meets expectations, some strategists told MarketWatch. Consensus forecasts call for a $10 billion or $15 billion cut in the Fed’s $85 billion in monthly bond purchases.

2) Pop then drop if taper delayed: If the central back holds off on tapering, some strategists see stocks rallying for a few hours, then selling off since such a decision would indicate the economy can’t yet handle a reduction in stimulus measures.

“There might be a short-lived pop, but I believe once the market digests it, (stocks) would then sell off,” said Doug Coté, chief market strategist at ING U.S. Investment Management, in a recent interview.

3) Sell off on a big taper: If the taper is larger than expected, stocks would drop, said Quincy Krosby, a market strategist at Prudential Financial, in a recent interview.

Och nu vet vi att det blev alternativ 2

Allvarligt. Nu vet vi. Det var väntat att de skulle ligga fast. Jag kunde till och med tänka mig ökade köp eller ett helt nytt stödprogram. Det kommer inte dras ned utan öka. Sluta va så naiva gummor och gubbar.

1729 var topp på Sp500

#10. Ha rätt och SÄGA det är en sak! Ha "rätt" och TÄNKA det är en annan! :)

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"Keep it simple stupid, and don't fall in love with the down side!"

GS:

BOTTOM LINE: The FOMC unexpectedly decided not to taper the rate of its asset purchases at today's meeting, preferring to wait for further confirmation of improvement in the outlook. There was no change to the forward guidance on the federal funds rate. The Summary of Economic Projections showed a decline in the central tendency expectation for the year-end 2015 fed funds rate, and the 2016 rate suggested a cautious pace of rate hikes once they begin.

MAIN POINTS:

1. The FOMC unexpectedly decided to leave its monthly rate of asset purchases unchanged for both Treasuries ($45bn) and MBS ($40bn) at today's meeting. The statement noted that "the Committee decided to await more evidence that progress [on improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions] will be sustained before adjusting the pace of its purchases." However, the Committee signaled that reductions in asset purchases are likely in the near term, noting that "in judging when to moderate the pace of asset purchases, the Committee will at its coming meetings assess whether incoming information continues to support the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective." Previously, this language noted that the Committee was prepared to "increase or reduce the pace of asset purchases" and did not refer to "coming meetings."

2. The FOMC did not change its forward guidance on the federal funds rate, retaining the language that the Committee expects to keep rates on hold at least as long as unemployment remains above 6.5% and projected inflation one to two years ahead is not greater than 2.5%.

3. The characterization of economic activity in the statement was slightly more tepid than in the July statement. The statement noted that "some indicators of labor market conditions" have shown further improvement in recent months, slightly more cautious language than used in the last statement. In addition mortgage rates "have risen further," although the Committee retained the language that "the housing sector has been strengthening," despite more mixed recent housing data. The statement explicitly noted that "the tightening of financial conditions observed in recent months, if sustained, could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and labor market."

4. With regard to participants’ economic projections, the mid-point of the central tendency of the unemployment rate was lowered a touch to 7.2% in 2013Q4 and 6.6% in 2014Q4, while real GDP growth was lowered by 0.3pp to 2.15% at end-2013 and 0.25pp to 3.0% at end-2014. In 2016—included for the first time—participants expected 2.85% real GDP growth, 1.95% core inflation, and 5.65% unemployment, only 0.15pp above the longer-run unemployment rate, which was lowered to 5.5%. Projections for real GDP growth in the longer term edged down slightly to 2.35% from 2.4% previously.

5. Participants’ forecasts for the funds rate (the “dots”) remained at 0.13% (average excluding the four highest projections) at end-2013 and end-2014 and fell 15bp to 0.81% at end-2015. Participants expected the funds rate to rise to 1.81% by end-2016, well below participants’ 3.25-4.25% range for the longer-run rate.

Mvh H3NPHLO