Grupp: Huvudforum
Open letter to the FOMC
Hussman har idag publicerat ett open letter till Fed där han visar på den för tillfället extrema värderingen på USA börsen och samtidigt påpekar att de metoder Fed gärna hänvisar till har ett betydligt sämre trac record. Väl värt att läsa oavsett hur tjockt med innehav man har på depån.
http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc131125.htm
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" if one examines the stocks in the S&P 500 individually, the median price/revenue multiple is actually higher today than it was in 2000"
"from the ratio of nonfinancial equity capitalization to nominal GDP, using Federal Reserve Z.1 Flow of Funds data. On this measure, equities are already beyond their 2007 peak valuations, and are approaching the 2000 extreme. The associated 10-year expected nominal total return for the S&P 500 is negative."
"Though Fed officials including Alan Greenspan and Janet Yellen seem attracted to the seemingly elegant simplicity of these “equity risk premium” models, they seem somehow oblivious to the fact that they don’t actually work. "
"Presently, this estimate implies that the S&P 500 is likely to underperform even the depressed yield on 10-year Treasury bonds over the coming decade."