Marknads Opinioner

Lägger ut email korrespondans ifran kollegor om deras nuvarande marknads opinion. Totalt 10 pers..

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-----Original Message-----
From: XXXXXXX

Sent: Monday, August 09, 2004 11:28 AM

Hi all - I'm interested to know the general opinion on the market here. To
put some meat into the question, lets define short-term bearish as a belief
that the market is more likely to decline 7% from current levels before it
advances 7%. Short-term bullish is the opposite.
Intermediate term bearish is the belief that the market will drop 15% before
it rallies 15%, intermediate term bullish would be the opposite.

I am bullish on both scores.
best
D.A

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short term bearish for me.

E.S 

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Short-term I would not be surprised to see an oversold bounce, but not above
1108 200-day SMA. Intermediate-term P&F NYSE Bullish Percent is on a new
sell signal in a column of "O's". This keeps me on the sidelines for long
only clients. Also I don't like the lower lows lower highs the indexes are
putting in. All the MA's are now broken to the downside. Market appears to
have few buyers and few sellers at this point. Probably a perfect set-up for
a new high :-)
J.C

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The last time I had stuff so overhwlmingly bullish, longer-term, was in
1994. I was reluctant to believe it then (and am now), but if the bast is
any indication, the next 6-18 months should be BIG upside.

-Ralph
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Our long-term stuff shows that the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are ready for a big
bounce, but this will have to wait until some of the other indexes catch up to the
downside.

S.M
Dir of Research

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ST Bullish ( but first, SPX to1050 Aug/Sep -1.5%, then to1150 Nov/Dec. +9.5%
IT Bullish (SPX to 1290 Feb/March +21%).......mike

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Int. term Bearish. LT Bearish.

Short term = way too late to short. Best case scenario, a move back to
1110-1115 but am not counting.

2004 low side targets (worst case, but odds diminish significantly as we
extend towards mid-October) still Dow 8500, SPX 900, NAZ under 1600.
Bear market low s/b roughly Dow 6400 in 2006.

My best case targets have been Dow 10889, SPX 1175 & Naz 2199 for quite
awhile now. I think it's unlikely we'll see these numbers before Dow
6400. If the best case targets are touched, the Dow 6400 bear market
target *could* turn out to be unreasonable.

If the best case is the end of a three-peaks-and a domed house, I
wouldn't toss the 6400. If the best case were part of an upside
breakout that measures to 12k (for instance), that would be another
story entirely. What happens in the interim always affects the forecast.

Please note I am not end TEOTWAWKI bearish. If Dow dividends are raised
over the next two years at 10% per year and earnings remain the same,
6400 will place the Dow at an 11.2 P/E and close to a 4% yield. That
could do the trick....

- A

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Short-term I am modestly bullish, but not to the tune of 7% however. I
am looking for a bounce, but in the intermediate term I am sticking to
my guns. Late last fall I said the SPX would start topping near 1,150,
and would subsequently trade between 965 and 1150 going into this fall.
We're not at 965 yet, but I anticipate that we'll see 965 before we see
1150 again.

The underlying reason for my prediction is--the trading range from June
of '02 to April of '03 was roughly 200 points. The SPX broke out, which
suggested to me that the market would rally an additional 200 points
(measured move) or to 1,165. Needless to say we have failed to break
through that level with any conviction, and I postulate that we'll be
heading towards the previous resistance level.
Short-term I am modestly bullish, but not to the tune of 7% however. I
am looking for a bounce, but in the intermediate term I am sticking to
my guns. Late last fall I said the SPX would start topping near 1,150,
and would subsequently trade between 965 and 1150 going into this fall.
We're not at 965 yet, but I anticipate that we'll see 965 before we see
1150 again.

Pat

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ST - Bullish
IT - Bullish
LT - Bearish should be decline >25%

Current decline looks near completion. I expect the S&P to remain within
it's current trend channel until a post election rally to (marginal) new
highs. Followed by a resumption of the bear market in 2005. 

A.D
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