2000 replay
Im getting flashbacks of 2000.
The market went vertical in 99 and early 2000, everything was great. The market held togather throughout the summer. Im sure most remember (those who survived anyway).
The main similarity is the Intel warning. In 2000 Ashuk Kumar a semi analyst at the time downgraded Intel and said they would warn after labour day, citing slowing business trends, he was scoffed at. Intel did warn the week after labour day (next week) and the stock tanked, stabilised, and fell some more after the dip buyers and believers bailed after the drawn out election spectacle.
Fast fwd 4 years. The slowdown is more evident this time and being helped by higher oil prices. Despite the slowdown though there are a lot of managers expecting a second half rally.
The significant similarity is the Intel warning at the same time of year in the election cycle. Hmmmm
#1, is that a quote from somewhere?
Otherwise it´s spelled I (not i).
--Man kan aldrig nå högre än sin egen inkompetensnivå--
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Laurence J Peter
From a pure "chartist" point a view it looks very much alike, a good bull run and a sideways movement with 3-4 tops before a break finalizes the movement "showing the way".
I did not follow market internals at the time of ATH, so i cannot speak about them. But today the dow shows remarkable strength in the internals.
Euroland and nasdaq is a totally different story all together though.
They look ripe for a downturn that looks devestating.
However whether this one breaks to the upside or the downside is far from clear right now.
The potential is big on either side the way i see it.
/Dez
sorry for bothering, but why you always double post in the fishnet group? :)
#4, oops, I have to fix that. thx for the heads up.
#1,3
I'm just noting the similarities between the periods, both were after big ramps ups. Y2K in 99,2000 and 03 it was the stimulus package and tax cuts.
Its not scientific , just a noteable observation.
Furthermore, Schaeffers research for September column is worth reading regarding the real level of fear int the market now, which may give and idea of a move.
we will see how it goes
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Also one time is not enough, i can basically take any period and always find an identical period to that in many aspects, it's only when they start occuring again and again and again that they ad value when trying to forecast the future.
Most likely i can take the same 2003-2004 period and find it identical with a period that would support a bullish case, i leave searching for that up to someone else though :-)
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