FreeWeek Påminnelse

Jo visst intressant men det faktum att de i princip haft totalt fel sen 2002 måste vägas in, vad har man för nytta av prognoser som slår mer fel än rätt?  Oavsett hur proffsiga de ser ut att vara, om de är fast i ett perma stadie så kommer de bara få rätt när börsen går neråt och även en 5-åring klarar av det, bara att konstant hävda att det ska gå ner så ligger man rätt när det går ner.

konsten är att ligga rätt både när det går upp och när det går ner, där försvinner 95% av analytikerkåren.

#1 Håller med om Ditt resonemang helt och hållet. Men trots att han legat fel länge så tycker ändå alltid att det är intressant att ta del av Prechters tankar. Han ger ofta infallsvinklar som är svårt att finna på annat håll. Men som alltid gäller det att kritiskt granska och tänka själv. 

Genom att studera Prechter, Lowrys, de vassaste AG-skribenterna samt en del annat och försöka få ihop allt till ett sammanhang kan man komma en bit på vägen. 

Jag noterar med viss tillfredsställelse att Prechter nu definierar mars -03 som den äkta botten eftersom jag sen länge har påstått detta, ex.vis här. ;-)  

mvh

Fibonacci & Elliott --- Vetenskap & Konst

Ja visst kan det vara intressant men det faktum att de tar saftigt betalt för rena kalkonanalyser är snudd på skandal, det är ren hästhandlarverksamhet.  Jag tycker nästan vi ska vara glada för att hans infallsviklar är svåra att finna på annat håll ;-)

Här är ett inlägg om EWI från ett forum i USA:

"Hi Tom,

EWI has a looong way to go to atone for the last few years of market calls. Just a few examples as I was once a subscriber and have been tracking their views since.

1. Euro: They were bearish the Euro in 2001 when one should have been buying. I know from first hand experience. I was holding Euro bonds when the Euro was at $0.85 and sold out thinking a lower low was ahead. Thank you Steve Hochberg. Since then I got my act together on foreign curencies no thanks to Steve.

2. Gold: They have been bearish on gold since it broke out above $325. Every climb was a pending top. They have revised their top targets countless times. You are not going to see sub $250 ever again. In fact, I will take any wager that you will not see sub $400 either. I know there are those that will choke on their lunch, but we'll see.

And this weekend someone email to ask:

"You have been extremely pessimistic on gold, and it looks like you will be proven right in the not-too-distant future. Might you hazard a guess when Gold will take out $252.00 on the downside?"

"The latest word from Bob Prechter is that as long as gold stays below its December 2004 peak, "you can stay bearish on gold for a decline to new lows in its long-term bear market, ultimately below $200 an ounce."

Give me a break!!

3. Silver: Been bearish the metal and still are. You should see their current ewave count. They have the first wave down from $8.50 to $5.50 as wave 1, and the last wave down as a subdivision. Lots a luck with that count. I guess silver is going to zero then. I wish I could read the commentary when silver breaks to new highs in a few weeks time. Another top call I am sure.

4. Stock Markets: They missed the October and March bottoms. I nailed both to the day and I still can't understand how they failed/ or were not at least ready for it. And they were ready to short the March '03 rally way to early. Big mistake again.

5. USD: In the last year they have repeatedly called for a major USD rally and have been wrong for too long on this one. Now yes the USD is in bounce mode and time will prove how robust it is. But they were useless trading wise to help anyone on that one.

6. Stock markets: I don't know how many times they have called the top of wave 2 (or B ) in the last year.

In sum, EWI is the worst possible voice for Elliott Wave bar none. Take it from me, they are bad and still are.

The only one that seems to be of some value is their commodities analyst (as long as he is not brainwashed by Bob's deflationary views). Bob writes a couple of books and feels compelled to stick with the deflationary scenario he laid out in them. Not good for your trading.

LOL, that's enough of that.

cheers,

john"

Ang botten mars 03

Jag vill inte påstå att det är fel men det passar  Prechters räkning för närvarande

 bättre.  Annars blir nog "2" lite bred ; )

#3 Jo, precis så känner jag också. En orsak varför jag endast skummar igenom STU nuförtiden. Men jag ser ändå inte nån motsägelse mot #2. 

#4 Min räkning säger att nedgången till mars-03 var Primary [C] inom Cycle IV (för USA) där Cycle IV blev en exp.flat. Både Prechters Primary [1] och min Primary [C] ska vara en 5:a. Enligt mig kom den ortodoxa toppen redan 1998.

Titta på uppgången från botten 1998 till ATH för Nasdaq, DAX, OMX .fl. Jag kan inte se den annat än som en trea, dvs Primary [B] inom nämnda exp.flat. Tydligast syns detta för DAX som uppvisar en ganska snygg Running Triangle under 1999 före den sista ruschen.

mvh 

Fibonacci & Elliott --- Vetenskap & Konst

#5

Menar du att nedgången från toppen 98 är en trea då. (Primary [A] )

 Proportionerna på ex. SP ser lite skumma ut. ( Exp flat)

 Okey då ligger vi  i Cycle IV och har gjort första vågen inom IV och håller på med vad då "x" våg ?  eller är IV klar.

haha här t ex från senaste numret, de visar en lysande indikator som markerat de flesta lows sen 2003, problemet är bara att de påstår att man ska sälja när den är under 0.65, jag la till streck från alla de gånger det skett och som synes har det inte varit helt lyckat att sälja där, den som köpt däremot har dragit in storkovan, jag fattar inte hur de kan göra såna här missar det är pinsamt. 

#6 IV är klar. Det som pågår är Primary [I] inom Cycle V i form av en ED enligt min uppfattning. Se här.

mvh  

Fibonacci & Elliott --- Vetenskap & Konst

#8

 Härligt mojas !  

Och detta, det är kalla fakta så det kan inte emotsägas egentligen, Prechter blir dock stormrik på att syssla med detta, sagan om råttfångaren får en ny vinkel.

"I don't subscribe to EWI or any other services for that matter. Most are worthless IMO, as far as trading is concerned. But i make it a point to visit thier website during thier freeweek. Nothing has changed, i.e they are still calling for DOW 400, Gold below 200 and a deflationary depression. That's to be expected from somebody who has called for a Grand Super Cycle top, not even a Super cycle top. The only way Prechter can survive his market timing career is sticking with his call. If he comes out now and says that the 2000 top was perhaps a wave 3 supercycle top and a wave 5 supercycle peak is pending, i think his career is done. Instead if they persist with thier Grand super cycle top theory, they would do well, for as the market rises, the fear among public will only rise and hence demand for thier services. Don't get me wrong, i respect Prechter for all the work he has done in reviving R.N Eliiot's work. But i think his work has more of academic value than any market timing value. Heck, if you are wrong for 10 years, what sort of a market timer are you ?

My point is not that. The latest in Precheter Eliiot wave theorist is that they missed the primary degree rally from oct 2002, because of the distotions introduced in the elliot waves becuase of the currency (i.e Dollar). When the market is plotted using thier proprietory Stable curreny index, the move from 2000 top looks like a perfect 5 wave move, which implied a wave 2 or wave B primary degree rally next and it would have been a piece of cake to catch it. But when the market pattern is viewed in dollar terms, Oct 02 bottom looks like a incomplete impulse, with a wave 5 pending. But as i recall from thier free week during March 03, Steve hochberg was not calling for a wave 5 of primary degree to be completed. Instead he was calling for a Primary degree wave 3 of 3 to start anytime, which is what they have been saying since then. With the glaring price momentum and McOsc divergences, they were still calling for a wave 3 of 3, expecting the divergences to be erased by a massive price collapse.

Anyway that's all besides the point. The long term predictions are a toss of coin and nobody have done it consistently correctly during thier entire career. The shocking part is now Prechter says, curreny movements has introduced distortons in the stock market e-wave patterns. The very premise of e-waves is that the social mood shows up as patterns in the markets, which happens to be fractal in nature. Now Prechter says currency movements has distorted it ! Viola ! What a groundbreaking discovery ? As i read it, i lost my complete respect for this guy. So in other words, is this guy saying that e-waves are useless when the market is viewed in nominal terms and one should start looking at e-waves thru their colored stable currency glasses. Pure garbage !. They are admitting the fact that the they counted the corrective nature of the decline from the 2000 top as impulsive, but are coming up with justifications as to why what they thought was correct. Blame it on the currency !

Glen Neely, in one of Ike's interviews hit the nail right on it's head. His contention is that e-wave theory has become too popular among the masses, as a result of which the market has started tracing more and more corrective patterns instead of impulsive patterns. I kind of incline towards that argument, because, when the crowd recognizes something, the only way money can be made is by fading the crowd. That's precisely what happens today, everybody recognizes a impulse wave completing and bet thier farms shorting the hack out of the market. The big boys recognizes the surge in shorting and fade them. This perfect looking impulse now becomes a double zig-zag. The mega bulls then come up with the wave 3 up or a series of 1 and 2s argument and guess what, the market goes into a correction, quashing the wave 3 bulls argument. The result is market becomes more and more correcitve and things like running corrections becomes more and more prevalent. Look at the primary degree wave 4 correction from 1987, which fooled the e-wavers big time, which happened to be a running correction till 1995, before expoding up in a wave 5 mania.

Precther and his team stubbornly fails to recognize this folly, continue to count impulses as corrections and corrections as impulses and make a mockery of the market timing profession. Based on the monstrous credit bubble built, Prechter's deflationary views might come to fruition some day. But the jury is still out on whether we will have a credit crises or a currency crises i.e a deflation or a hyperinflation. But even if his predictions come true, he would turn out be correct in his outlook/perspective and not as a market timer.

Mr Prechter, with all due respect, e-waves are still what they were 100 years back, i.e a reflection of mood of the masses. Follow the rules, not your biases, count corrections as corrections and you don't have to come with justifications like the currency movement garbage to explain your screw-up ! "