5-års fenomenet

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"Years Ending In 5 Remain Historically Bullish

The whole "5th year" phenomenon is well established, and we believe that it will work again this year. The DJIA has been up in every year-5 since its inception in 1896. One problem at the moment is that it appears that a few too many investors were trying to "front run" this phenomenon by buying into the stock market in late 2004.

That produced an excessively bullish sentiment situation, and that sentiment situation is in the process of being corrected right now.

The year-5 phenomenon is just part of the overall Decennial Pattern. Decades typically see a more sideways market for the first three to four years, and so our own recent experience is not atypical. The middle of the decade sees an upward acceleration, which continues generally throughout the rest of the decade.

This average pattern is not meant to imply that no bear markets occur, for we certainly know that they do come along.

But right now, we are in the fat part of the Decennial Pattern, so the year-5 phenomenon is worth paying attention to. Fellow newsletter writer and cycle enthusiast, Peter Eliades, has done some research, which digs deeper into the year-5 behaviors. He noted recently that there is a strong tendency for the market to make its bottom for the year during the first quarter of the year-5.

Except for 1965, the DJIA during each year-5 of the last ten decades, all of the other year-5s saw the low for the year by March 30. Lows were put in during January and February. So, barring a pair of huge international crises in 2005, we should reasonably expect that the price low we see during the first quarter will be the low for this year. Source: The McClellan Market Report, February 2005, Report #236."