Chart of the day
Today's chart compares S&P 500 earnings with the capacity utilization rate. Since 1970, capacity utilization has bottomed (and peaked) 6 to 15 months before earnings. Recently, however, earnings have soared while capacity utilization has merely inched its way up. Why? Some have voiced concern over the quality of earnings (i.e. AIG) as a similar divergence occurred in 1999-2000. Some believe that the recent surge in earnings is due in part to the "carry trade." The carry trade refers to financial institutions borrowing heavily at low short-term rates and then loaning out that same money at higher long-term rates. Another school of thought is that a significant number of US companies are outsourcing to low cost countries (i.e. China), which is driving up profits at the expense of US manufacturers.
Notes:
- S&P 500 earnings are 'as reported' trailing 12-month earnings.
- Capacity utilization refers to the percentage of total US industrial capacity that is being used at a given point in time.
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Fast S&P500 earnings där är de justared för något? eftersom de av naturen annars konstant bör öka i längden av bara ren inflation om inte annat medans cap.ut är en procentuell skala som alltid kommer fladdra mellan 0-100.
på lång sikt kan ju en procentuell skala aldrig "hänga med" ett pris som i snitt konstant ökar några procent varje år, år efter år efter år
ställ inga frågor till mej, sånt här är 'over my head' ... tyckte det såg intressant ut och gissade att det kunde intressera nån som är mer clever än mej :-)
rumpino, at your service :-)
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Ogilla! 5
Gilla!
Another school of thought is that a significant number of US companies are outsourcing to low cost countries (i.e. China), which is driving up profits at the expense of US manufacturers.
Import ökningen till USA från dotterbolag till amerikanska bolag (affiliate imports) och ökningen av manufacturings andel av den tyder ju på det. Dock bara siffror tom 2002.
Jobbsiffrorna för manufacturing gör ju detsamma.