NYSE Specialist Short Ratio
By far the most bullish indicator that I am currently seeing is the action in the NYSE Specialist Short Ratio. Historically, the market has usually enjoyed a significant bullish rally whenever the 8-week moving average of the NYSE Specialist Short Ratio touches a level of 30% or so. This indicator worked beautifully in the 1940s right up to the 1990s. The question is: Why isn?t this indicator currently working? Or is this indicator still working but we are just not seeing the implications of it yet? A subsequent rally of 30% to 50% in the Dow Industrials in the next couple of years certainly sounds far-fetched and ridiculous in the minds of most people, but this is certainly what this indicator is suggesting - given the many historical precedents. Following is a weekly chart showing the DJIA vs. the 8-week MA of the NYSE Specialist Short Ratio from January 2002 to last Friday. This chart is certainly making many bears lose sleep at night
http://www.marketthoughts.com/z20050616.html
lite längre ner står hans sammanfattningen :
Conclusion: I am very wary of all the optimism out there, considering that the market hasn?t gone anywhere over the last 18 months and considering that the global economy is slowing down as we speak. The latter is very important in that for the first time since 1998, there are extreme deflationary brewing - as will be evident should a country like China slow down or should a company like GM go into Chapter 11. Currently, investors are not discounting any of these scenarios occurring. The recent fall in volatility levels does not bode well for the stock market just up ahead - considering that the bottoming of volatility has nearly always preceded a significant decline in the stock market ever since the bear began in Spring 2000. Finally, during the last couple of months in this commentary, I have been maintaining that we will most probably see another correction in the Summer or Fall of this year before we can embark on a sustainable uptrend, and I still stand by this "prediction."
Signing off,
Henry K. To, CFA
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S Borin
#2
stämmer rätt bra med många indikatorer i nuläget, på kortare sikt ser det kanske ut som en rekyl närmar sig men det är nog just bara en rekyl då, den längre trenden ser ut att ha nya toppar i sig
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Ogilla! 3
Gilla!
På kortare sikt är P/C nära toppnivåer dock
www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/putcall.htm