It's Earnings Season
Här kommer en tabell av vad markanden förväntar sig av olika företag fram till den 20 april, och mest intressant är att titta på Whisper number...
Alcoa, visar vägen redan ikväll efter 22:00
mvh
Fingers of Instability by John Mauldin 4/7/2006
Jag också rekommenderar att man läser John Mauldin senaste vecko brev...
Nobel laureate Hyman Minsky points out that stability leads to instability. The more comfortable we get with a given condition or trend, the longer it will persist; and then when the trend fails, the more dramatic the correction is. The problem with long-term macroeconomic stability is that it tends to produce unstable financial arrangements. If we believe that tomorrow and next year will be the same as last week and last year, we are more willing to add debt or postpone savings for current consumption. Thus, says Minsky, the longer the period of stability, the higher the potential risk for even greater instability when market participants must change their behavior.
http://www.investorsinsight.com/thoughts_print.aspx
mvh
Vad är "whisper number"? Rykten?
Investors Intelligence
Se bild...
senaste från 5 april
Bullish 49,5 mot 46,5 den 29/03
Bear 27,8 mot 28,3 den 29/03
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
# 5
Sorry för jag kunde inte besvara din fråga direkt...
ja, rykte...om man vill
A whisper number is an unofficial earnings estimate for a particular company that a stock analyst shares with clients to supplement the official published estimate. If the company reports earnings in line with the official estimate when the whisper number has been higher, the stock price may fall anyway since investors were expecting something better. The same is true in reverse. If earnings fall short of official expectations but meet a lower whisper number, the stock price may go up.
lite mer här
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/whispernumber.asp
mvh
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Alcoa Inc :
se bild :-))
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Alcoa Inc
Det blev 0,69
väntat 0,51. whisper: 0,53
April 10 (Bloomberg) -- Alcoa Inc., the world's biggest aluminum maker, said its first-quarter profit more than doubled to a record $608 million as metal prices surged.
Net income rose to 69 cents a share from $260 million, or 30 cents a share, a year earlier, Pittsburgh-based Alcoa said today in an e-mailed statement. Sales rose to $7.24 billion from $6.22 billion.
Shares of Alcoa have risen 46 percent since reaching a two- year low in October. Alcoa rose 30 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $32.80 at 4:01 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the highest closing price in 16 months.
Aluminum prices during the quarter were up 29 percent on average from the same period last year and reached a 17-year high on the London Metal Exchange in February.
mvh
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
While we are still fighting inflationary pressures, cost increases have slowed from last year, and our restructuring and efficiency initiatives have helped strengthen profitability," Alain Belda, Alcoa's chairman and chief executive officer, said in a statement accompanying the earnings report.
Our aerospace and commercial transportation markets are particularly robust this year, and we expect overall market conditions to remain strong," Belda added. Like most producers in the energy-intensive aluminum business, Alcoa has been hit by sharply higher energy prices. But swelling global demand, which Alcoa predicts will double by 2020, allowed the company to recover most of the cost through higher product pricing.
Capital expenditures for the quarter totaled $592 million, $370 million, or 63%, of which was spent on growth projects
Aktien stiger med över 6,12%
mvh
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Nokia: Q1 average selling prices above expectations
NOKIA: AVERAGE SELLING PRICE 103 EUROS VS 99 EUROS FORECAST
When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Nokia uppger att andelen av lågprisprodukter som bolaget sålt under kvartalet var lägre än väntat...
Positivt eller negativt? hmmmm
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
NOKIA: VÄNDE USA-TERMINERNA FRÅN NEGATIVT TILL POSITIVT (Direkt)
2006-04-11 14:51
Hela index i Stockholm ställdes plötsligt upp, sedan
såg jag att Nokia hade justerat prognoserna. Det här kanske är
det som behövs för att bryta de senaste dagarnas negativa
mönster", säger en mäklare till Nyhetsbyrån Direkt.
Varför tolkar inte marknaden denna nyhet som nåt specifik för ett företag och i detta fall Nokia som man brukar göra när ett företag vinstvarnar för då reagerar marknaden med att tolka vinsvarningen som specifik för företaget ...:-))) Intel senaste
Vi får se vad tåget går!
MVH
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
General Electric
GE släpper rapport när som helst.
markande förväntar sig en vinst på 0,39
92% av alla analyser rekar köp
skulle välja köp ev en säljoption
mvh
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Som väntat, kursen ligger stilla
33am 04/13/06 GE reiterates FY 2006 cont ops $1.94 to $2.02 - MarketWatch.com
6:33am 04/13/06 GE Q2 continuing ops seen 46c to 48c - MarketWatch.com
6:31am 04/13/06 GE earnings were from continuing ops; GE overall EPS 41c - MarketWatch.com
6:30am 04/13/06 GE Q1 revenue up 10% to $37.8 billion - MarketWatch.com
6:30am 04/13/06 GE: Five of six divisions see double-digit earnings growth - MarketWatch.com
6:30am 04/13/06 GE Q1 earnings $4 billion, or 39c a share - MarketWatch.com
STOCKHOLM (Direkt) General Electric redovisar en vinst
per aktie på 0:39 dollar per aktie för första kvartalet.
Väntat enligt Thomson Financial var just 0:39 dollar per
aktie. GE spår att vinsten per aktie för andra kvartalet kommer
att uppgå till 0:46-0:48 dollar per aktie. Här var 0:47 dollar
väntat./PH
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Ingen reaktion än eller ?
U.S. 10-Year Note's Yield Rises to 5%, Highest Since June 2002
``This is a very important level,'' said Paul McCulley, a managing director at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., which manages the world's biggest bond fund, in an interview on April 7. ``How far it will go above five I don't know. Markets have a tendency to overshoot.''
,,,
``The conundrum just died,'' Pimco's McCulley said on April 7 when the yield was about 4.8 percent.
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aBLP7p4Ybv9E&refer=news_index
When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.
Lite statistik från länken ovan # 16
The rise in 10-year yields may have caught most economists off guard. The median estimate of 70 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News from Feb. 27 to March 7 was for the yield to end this quarter at 4.80 percent, and peak this year at 4.90 percent.
General Elec Co verkar inte hjälpa optimisterna
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Another cause for concern may be stock options, which all companies must account for as an expense for the first time. The costs will lower the consensus estimate of 2006 earnings for S&P 500 technology stocks by $7 billion, or $6 billion more than any other group, according to research from Tom Doerflinger, senior equity strategist at UBS Securities LLC in New York.
For Brown Brothers' Rauscher, his indicator tells the story because of its track record -- a story that suggests technology companies may fail to build on this year's gains.
``It's called every major top and bottom of the last 15 years,'' he said. ``If I was stranded on a desert island and could take only one thing with me, it would be this.''
Kanske!
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aox2x_BbuzK4&refer=news_index
Japan Stocks Fall to Two-Week Low
``Higher rates may dent demand for loans because lending growth in Japan is only just starting to recover,'' said Daiwa's Monji.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=af0Y4ylqiy78&refer=japan
Det finns många andra intressanta texter att läsa på bloomberg...
Japan. USA, Europa, kina...
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Veckans rapporter i USA.
Börjar med Citigroup innan börsen öppnar
Väntat 1,02
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Tisdag
IBM, Yahoo, texas Instruments
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Tack för ditt idoga arbete med att wiska kommande förväntningar till oss!
mvh/viotto
# 22 tack själv...:-)))
CITIGROUP det blev 1,12 VS $1.04
CITIGROUP Q1 NET INCOME $5.64 BILLION
Citigroup Q1 revenue $22.183B vs $21.196B
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Citigroupaid said monday it's first quarter net income rose 4% on strong results in its global consumer banking and corporate investment banking operations.
The results included a $648 million charge to account for options awards under new accounting rules. The new accounting rules require companies to count stock-based compensation as expenses. On average, the researchers who cover the shares expected the company to report first-quarter earnings $1.02 a share. That estimate included the effect of a non-cash accounting adjustments for stock option costs. Citi also said it plans an additional $10 billion in share buybacks
mer här
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ajbq8H5NvwOc&refer=news_index
WhisperNumber
se bild 1
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Net foreign capital inflows into the United States increased to $86.9 billion in February, the largest purchases since November, the Treasury Department said Monday. Net foreign purchases of U.S. financial assets were $99.5 billion, while U.S. owners purchased a net $12.6 billion in foreign financial securities.
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Earnings season:
Igår så släppte 99 företag positiva resultat medan 24 släppte negativa resultat
sedan måndag: så finner man 215 positiva och 56 negativa
Som väntat är inte med i beräkningen
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Earnings season
Igår torsdag släppte 181 företag positiva resultat medan 58 släppte negativa resultat
Sedan början av rapporten perioden så har 773 släppt positiva resultat och 181 negativa.
Som väntat är inte med i beräkningen
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Earnings season
For Monday, there were 24 positive surprises and 15 negative suprise. Since last Monday's commencement of earnings season we have 825 positive surprises to 232 negative surprises.
Om Bernanke Igår:
Monday's action was negative after CNBC reported that Bernanke will continue to raise rates and his comments from last week do not mean that the Federal Reserve is done. CNBC Maria Bartiromo stated Monday afternoon that she conversed with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke at the White House Correspondent Dinner on Saturday night and that he told her the markets misunderstood his comments that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates. Funny, we did not take his comments that way. In fact his comments were very clear, we might pause and see what happens before continuing to raise rates.
Bartiromo's commentary is nothing less than completely irresponsible and we hope that Bernanke has learned his lesson, "Lose lips sink markets." We would like to know who she "leaked" this discussion with before she came on the air. Personally, I would like to have her turn her phone records over to the SEC and then see how many people got short before they knew she was turning up on the air. Due to this action, the action in the Treasury market can not be interpreted correctly. We will see how this story settles in before we analyze today's action.
från Morning Briefings
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Earnings season
Since the commencement of earnings season we have 1020 positive surprises to 322 negative surprises.
On the whole, earnings season has been a big positive.
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
WhisperNumber när det gäller Cisco är 0,27
väntat 0,26
rapporten släpps efter 22.00
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
WhisperNumber som ta upp en del företag som rapporterar...
HOME DEPOT redan släppt raporten.
Whispernumber landade på 0,69, väntat 0,67
Det blev 0,70
Home Depot said that first-quarter net income rose to $1.5 billion, or 70 cents a share, from $1.2 billion, or 57 cents a year ago. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had been expecting the home improvement retailer to report average earnings of 67 cents a share. Sales rose 13.1% to $21.5 billion in the first quarter, just under analyst forecasts of $21.63 billion, after the company's acquisition of Hughes Supply more than doubled the size of its supply operations. Home Depot saw average ticket growth across all merchandise categories and increased its average ticket by 4.3% to a record $60.75
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
Glömde bilden-))
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
WAL-MART WhisperNumber är 0,63 väntat 0,61
det blev 0,63
Wal-Mart said first-quarter net income rose 6.3% to $2.615 billion, or 63 cents a share, with revenue up 12.2% to $80.47 billion. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call were expecting earnings of 61 cents a share on revenue of $80.43 billion. The Bentonville, Ark.-based retailer said its inventory performance was the best it's seen in many quarters. The world's largest retailer expects a 2% to 4% U.S. same-store sales rise in the second quarter, and earnings between 70 cents and 74 cents a share. It continues to see fiscal year earnings between $2.88 and $2.95 a share
"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill
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Gilla!
bild 2
Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.