KINA, a technical move!

Testimony of Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
Outlook for the U.S. economy
Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Congress
April 27, 2006

En intressant punkt:

Another important challenge is the large and widening deficit in the U.S. current account. This deficit has increased from a little more than $100 billion in 1995 to roughly $800 billion last year, or 6-1/2 percent of nominal GDP. The causes of this deficit are complex and include both domestic and international factors. Fundamentally, the current account deficit reflects the fact that capital investment in the United States, including residential construction, substantially exceeds U.S. national saving. The opposite situation exists abroad, in that the saving of our trading partners exceeds their own capital investment. The excess of domestic investment over domestic saving in the United States, which by definition is the same as the current account deficit, must be financed by net inflows of funds from investors abroad. To date, the United States has had little difficulty in financing its current account deficit, as foreign savers have found U.S. investments attractive and foreign official institutions have added to their stocks of dollar-denominated international reserves. However, the cumulative effect of years of current account deficits have caused the United States to switch from being an international creditor to an international debtor, with a net foreign debt position of more than $3 trillion, roughly 25 percent of a year's GDP. This trend cannot continue forever, as it would imply an ever-growing interest burden owed to foreign creditors. Moreover, as foreign holdings of U.S. assets increase, at some point foreigners may become less willing to add these assets to their portfolios. While it is likely that current account imbalances will be resolved gradually over time, there is a small risk of a sudden shift in sentiment that could lead to disruptive changes in the value of the dollar and in other asset prices.

http://federalreserve.gov/BoardDocs/Testimony/2006/20060427/default.htm

"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill

Parody om Bernanke och räntan:-))

Every Breath You Take
Dean Glenn Hubbard
Parody by Columbia Business School Students Every Breath You Take 

"First you move your lips,
Hike a few more bips,
When demand then dips,
And the Yield Curve Flips
I'll be watching you"

Too funny !

http://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/students/organizations/follies/media/EveryBreath.wmv

"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Japan fortsätter styra mot nollränta 

--Man kan aldrig nå högre än sin egen inkompetensnivå--

fritt efter;

Laurence J Peter

To Pause, or Not To Pause
by John Mauldin
4/28/2006

Diskuterar det viktigaste som hänt  i veckan...

Och förstås låten I´ll Be watching som  t.o.m bloomberg TV inte kunde avstå från visa videon...

# 2

I'll Be Watching You

But first, let's have some fun. The following is a link to a very funny satirical music video by the students at the Columbia Business School (first sent to me by Gary North among a host of friends). This takes a little set-up to understand some of the inside jokes. It is set to the tune of the old Police hit, "Every Breath You Take." It makes fun of the fact that the Dean of the Business School, Glenn Hubbard, former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers to the President, wanted to be Fed chairman. CBS refers to Columbia Business School and not the TV network. Major kudos to the kids who did this! And for those of you who aren't familiar with Hubbard's face (after all, he is an economist), the student who "plays" Hubbard is an uncanny look-alike of a young Hubbard. At least now, Glenn, you can make claims to being an erstwhile rock star.

Sample lyrics, as "Hubbard" sings about Bernanke:

"First you move your lips, and hike a few more bips, when demand then dips and the yield curve flips, I'll be watching you!" Crank up the volume and enjoy!

http://www.investorsinsight.com/thoughts_print.aspx

Sen lyssna på senaste call från Don Coxe som handlar om dollar och annat

http://www.bmoharris.com/webcast.asp

Om ni vill veta om lite om " Plaza Agreement" som Coxe tar upp så läs följande PDF om ni är intresserad...

The "Nixon Shock" and the "Plaza Agreement" :
Lessons from Two Seemingly Failed Cases of
Japan's Exchange Rate Policy

http://www.iwep.org.cn/wec/2004_1-2/heitiandongyan.pdf

"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill

GDP Is A Terrific Coincident Indicator (pdf)

Both in the minutes to the March 28 FOMC meeting and in Chairman Bernanke?s April 27 testimony to the Joint Economic Committee, the message was communicated that the Fed expects real GDP growth to moderate from its blistering pace set in 2006:Q1.

I doubt seriously if the Fed?s forecasting model bears much resemblance to mine. But both are sending the same message - economic growth is set to slow. And the policy implication is that the FOMC is set to pause after one more 25 basis point funds rate hike on May 10.

"When everyone thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong."
Humphrey Neill

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.