Chart of the day

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently stated that moderation in economic growth "should help to limit inflation pressures over time." To get a sense of where the economy is heading, today's chart presents the ECRI leading index. The index is a composite of seven indicators chosen for their ability to signal both the beginning and the end of economic recessions. A downturn in the index of leading economic indicators has preceded the beginning of a recession by about 10 months; an upturn in the index has preceded the end of a recession by an average of 3 months. Where do we stand now? The index peaked nearly three months ago and continues to drift lower which suggests that the overall economy is likely to moderate over the near term