Alternativ till Björntider

Tänkte att det kanske är fler än Karos som vill lufta sina åsikter om alternativ till en total börskrasch. Jag kommer inte att uppdatera den här tråden så flitigt, utan tanken är att alla som inte vill förstöra Baronens fina tråd när de har alternativa tankar ska kunna skriva här.

Trenden är ner för tillfället, men många tror att vi ska se en högre topp innan vi ser en ännu större nergång:

1380 är en nivå som det skulle kunna vända vid:

http://s3.postimg.org/6vvdgar5t/screenshot_145.png

Roasan: http://s3.postimg.org/4tuw21t6p/screenshot_146.png

Leif: http://www.aktieguiden.com/1350185/analys-v39

Perz: https://twitter.com/PerzeusX/status/645011425472217088

Även på SPX så finns det de som tror på en högre topp innan en börskrasch.

http://stockcharts.com/public/1842472

Caldaro https://caldaro.wordpress.com/ Grafer: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp :

The five primary wave Cycle wave [1] bull market continues to unfold. Primary waves I and II completed in 2011, and Primary waves III and IV should be completing in 2015. While Primary I was a simple 9 wave structure that topped at SPX 1371. Primary III was a somewhat difficult, at times, 21 wave structure that topped at SPX 2135. Primary II was a five wave elongated flat that lasted five months. Primary IV should be a less complicated three wave zigzag that should conclude this month.

When it does conclude, probably with a retest of the OEW 1869 pivot range, Primary V should carry the market to all time new highs. Over the past 30 years, fifth waves have lasted anywhere from two to six months. Unless the fifth wave subdivided into five waves of its own. This occurred once, out of six opportunities, and the fifth wave lasted 9 months. Price targets for Primary V, should SPX 1867 be the low, are posted on the weekly chart above. Overall it looks like this extended bull market should end either late this year or in Q1/Q2 of 2016. When it does conclude we would then expect the market to lose about half of its value, over the next one to two years, to complete Cycle wave [2]. Based upon these projections, it appears time to monitor and adjust one’s portfolio.

En strategi som har fungerat över ganska lång tid är att vara kort maj-oktober och att vara lång oktober-maj. http://s27.postimg.org/qjnu2gxu9/OMXS30_20150905_sellinmay.png

Mvh,

gausten