Nokia

Skrev lite igår om Nokia och om det inte skulle vara läga att köpa nu efter Motorolas, Lucent och Sony Ericssons Q4 rapporter?

Bilden är ju ganska entydig:

Mobiltelefoner + ca 45 % (+40-50 %)

System + ca 10 % (+2-20 %)

Tar man dom siffrorna rakt av och jmf 2003 (Q4):

- Ericsson omsatte 32 mdr (18 % rörmarg) inom mobilsystem (inkl proaserv), 36 mdr totalt, rörmarg 16 %

- Nokia omsatte 6,0 mdr euro (25 % rörmarg) inom mobiltelefoner, 8,8 mdr euro totalt, rörmarg 21 %

- Q3 var rörmarg 22,5 % för Ericsson och 13,5 % för Nokia (23 % rsp 19%)

2004 Q4, företag oms vinst:

+ Ericsson: 38 mdr 8 mdr vinst rörelse - sämre än väntat??

+ Nokia: 11,8 mdr euro 1,6 mdr vinst rörelse - bättre än väntat?? Jo,visst men men ASP har gått nerkraftigt för Nokia sålde 55 milj telefoner för 6 mdr Q4 2003 , men 51,5 milj för bara 4,5 mdr Q3 2004...

Slutsats efter att ha kollat lite mer (se tabellen) - Nokia kommer ju att överraska kraftigt!!

MLN EUR 4kv 04 4kv 03 2004 2005

===================================================

OMSÄTTNING 8.466 8.789 28.670 30.013

---------------------------------------------------

Mobile Phones 5.239 6.038 18.086 17.611

Multimedia 1.225 953 3.654 4.706

Networks 1.820 1.706 6.281 6.839

Enterprise 214 126 764 1.055

---------------------------------------------------

RÖRELSERES 1.180 1.669 4.153 4.222

---------------------------------------------------

Mobile Phones 963 1.697 3.671 3.219

Multimedia 117 107 132 451

Networks 259 41 877 965

Enterprise -50 -59 -206 -108

---------------------------------------------------

RES F SKATT

SNITT 1.254 1.731 4.500 4.544

LÄGST 1.118 4.364 3.280

HÖGST 1.374 4.620 5.672

MEDIAN 1.266 4.512 4.641

AVVIKELSE 5% 1% 11%

---------------------------------------------------

NETTOVINST 849 1.168 3.037 3.108

---------------------------------------------------

VINST/AKTIE 0:18 0:25 0:65 0:67

Ser man på historiken bakåt för Nokia så...

Bolag namn Q303-Q403-Q104-Q204-Q304 - Prognos/utfall Q4 2004

? Nokia OY 34,2-33,0-28,9-29,7-30,9 - 12 % (från 6,0 till 5,2 mdr euro??)

? Samsun g 11,2-09,5-12,5-12,1-13,8

? Motorola 14,7-13,4-16,4-15,8-13,4 + 50 % (från 3,3 till 5,0 mdr dollar)

? Siiemens 09,1-09,1-08,0-06,9-07,6

? LG Elect 05,3-05,3-05,8-06,3-06,7

? Sony Eri 05,3-05,3-05,6-06,6-06,4 + 40 % (från 1,4 till 2,0 mdr dollar)

? Övriga 20,2-24,2-23,4-23,1-21,0

Mitt tips är istället att se på nokias fsg/sålda Q1-Q3:

Q1 4,3 mdr Euro/44.7milj sålda/29.2%

Q2 4,1 mdr Euro/45.4milj sålda/28,9%

Q3 4,4 mdr Euro/51,4milj sålda/30,6%

Q4 ??? mdr Euro/62,0milj sålda/32,7%

Jag tror att man återtagit andelar i de "dyrare" segmenten under Q4, och vänt trenden och är tillbaka på Q1 nivån igen 4,3 x 62/44,7 = 5,96!!

Denna analys gjordes efter Samsungs rapport 14 jan (på en engelsk site):

A First WAG at CY 2004 Handset Sell-In and Share Estimates

·

2004 Q3 CYTD¹ ¦ Q4 2004³ ¦ 2004² 2004²

Company Sales Share ¦ Sales Share ¦ Sales Share

======= ====== ===== ¦ ====== ===== ¦ ====== =====

1. Nokia 141.5m 29.6% ¦ 62.0m 32.7% ¦ 203.5m 30.5%

2. Motorola 72.7m 15.2% ¦ 27.0m 14.2% ¦ 99.7m 14.9%

3. Samsung 65.5m 13.7% ¦ 21.1m 11.6% ¦ 86.5m 13.0%°

4. Siemens 35.7m 7.5% ¦ 11.2m 5.9% ¦ 46.9m 7.0%

5. LG 30.5m 6.4% ¦ 13.0m 6.8% ¦ 43.5m 6.5%

6. SEricsson 29.9m 6.3% ¦ 12.3m 6.5% ¦ 42.2m 6.3%

Others 101.9m 20.9% ¦ 43.2m 22.3% ¦ 145.2m 21.8%

====== ====== ¦ ====== ====== ¦ ====== ======

Total 477.7m 100.0% ¦ 189.8m 100.0% ¦ 667.5m 100.0%

·

° Adjusted for Samsung's actuals

¹ Sell-in as tracked by Strategy Analytics for 1st 3 Quarters of 2004

² From Forbes/Asia Pulse Article (see "Notes" below).

³ Calculated from Strategy Analytics Q3 CYTD and Asia Pulse Article.

·

Strategy Analytics 2003 Sell-in and Asia Pulse's Prelim 2004 Sell-In

·

2003¹ ¦ Q4 2003¹ ¦¦ Q4 2004² ¦ 2004²

Company Sales Share¦ Sales Share¦¦ Sales Share¦Sales Share

======= ====== =====¦ ===== ======¦¦ ====== =====¦====== =====

Nokia 180.7m 34.7%¦ 54.6m 34.2%¦¦ 62.0m 32.7%¦203.5m 30.5%

Motorola 75.2m 14.5%¦ 22.4m 14.0%¦¦ 27.0m 14.2%¦ 99.7m 14.9%

Samsung 54.5m 10.5%¦ 16.5m 10.3%¦¦ 21.1m 11.6%¦ 86.5m 13.0%

Siemens 43.8m 8.4%¦ 15.0m 9.4%¦¦ 11.2m 5.9%¦ 46.9m 7.0%

SEricsson 26.7m 5.1%¦ 7.9m 4.9%¦¦ 12.3m 6.5%¦ 42.2m 6.3%

LG 26.2m 5.0%¦ 9.7m 6.1%¦¦ 13.0m 6.8%¦ 43.5m 6.5%

Others 113.0m 21.8%¦ 33.5m 21.1%¦¦ 43.2m 22.3%¦145.2m 21.8%

====== ======¦====== ======¦¦====== ======¦====== ======

Total 520.1m 100.0%¦159.6m 100.0%¦¦189.8m 100.0%¦667.5m 100.0%

·

¹ As reported by Strategy Analytics for Q4 2003 and CY 2003

² Calculated from Strategy Analytics Q3 CYTD and Asia Pulse Article.

³ Samsung said it sold 86.53 million handsets worldwide in 2004, up 55%

from 2003 which would equate to 12.96% on 2004sell-in of 667.5m.

Strategy Analytics CY 2004 Handset Sell-In & Share Estimates Thru Q3

·

Q1 04 Q1 04¦ Q2 04 Q2 04¦ Q3 04 Q3 04¦ 2004 CYTD

Company Sales Share¦ Sales Share¦ Sales Share¦ Sales Share

======= ===== =====¦ ===== =====¦ ===== =====¦ ===== =====

1. Nokia 44.7m 29.2%¦ 45.4m 28.9%¦ 51.4m 30.6%¦141.5m 29.6%

2. Motorola 25.3m 16.5%¦ 24.1m 15.4%¦ 23.3m 13.9%¦ 72.7m 15.2%

3. Samsung 20.1m 13.1%¦ 22.7m 14.5%¦ 22.7m 13.5%¦ 65.5m 13.7%

4. Siemens 12.8m 8.4%¦ 10.4m 6.6%¦ 12.5m 7.5%¦ 35.7m 7.5%

5. LG 8.8m 5.7%¦ 9.9m 6.3%¦ 11.8m 7.0%¦ 30.5m 6.4%

6. SEricsson 8.8m 5.7%¦ 10.4m 6.6%¦ 10.7m 6.4%¦ 29.9m 6.3%

Others 32.6m 21.3%¦ 34.0m 21.6%¦ 35.3m 21.0%¦101.9m 21.3%

====== ======¦====== ======¦====== ======¦====== ======

Total 153.1m 100.0%¦156.9m 100.0%¦167.7m 100.0%¦477.7m 100.0%

Notes: Purported Factoids from Forbes/Asia Pulse Article and Prudential Estimates

* Nokia sold 203.5 million units globally last year, up 13.2% from 2003. Nokia's share in the global market shrank to 30.5% in 2004 from 34.8% a year ago.

* Motorola sold 99.7 million sets, 32% more than the previous year. and its share edged up 0.4 percentage point to 14.9%.

* Samsung sold 55.7 million handsets globally in 2004, a 58.9% increase from a year ago. Its share rose to 13.2% (actually 13%) last year from 10.8 per cent in 2003.

[55.7 was an obvious typo. I substituted 86.5 million actual for the 55.7 million typo]

* LG Electronics saw a 58.8% rise in handset sales to 43.5 million units in 2004 from a year before and raised its share to 6.5% from 5.3% during the cited period.

* Siemens reported an 8.3% increase in sales last year to 46.9 million units but their global share dropped 1.4 percentage points to 7 per cent.

* Samsung Electronics said it was ranked fifth globally in terms of sales last year, with US $18.1 billion. Nokia retained its No. 1 ranking last year with sales of $36 billion, followed by Motorola with $28.8 billion. Siemens and Cisco Systems were next on the list with $28.3 billion and $23.6 billion, respectively.

A Sanity Check:

* As a sanity check I took a look at Tim Luke's (Lehman Brothers) estimated handset sales unit estimates for Q4 04 and 2004 for both Nokia and Motorola (who reports next Tuesday) and they are identical to what I have plugged in for those vendors from the Asia Pulse/Prudential source. It should be noted that Tim is forecasting total sell-in for 2004 of 673 million units v. the 667.5 million I have plugged in above to calculate annual share.