QQQQ Statestik

Delger lite skysst statestik for kommande tid och idag.

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Date: Tue, 10 May 2005 23:54:56 EDT
Subject: RE: NDX hits down trendline
To: XXXXXX 

Yesterday the QQQQ ended a run of 7 consecutive upward days. This was only
the fifth time since March 10, 1999, when this ETF began trading, amounting to
only a total of 35 trading days out of 1551, or only about 2.3% of the time.
Prior to yesterday the gains (losses) for several subsequent days were as
follows:

Date ,,,,, 1 day ,,,,, 2 days ,,,,, 3 days ,,,,, 4 days ,,,,,
5 days ,,,,, 10 days ,,,,, 15 days
2/8/00 ,,,,, -3.53% ,,,,, -0.37% ,,,,, -2.68% ,,,,, -2.80% ,,,,,
-2.10% ,,,,, 1.58% ,,,,, 4.87%
8/19/03 ,,,,, -0.25% ,,,,, 0.83% ,,,,, 0.22% ,,,,, 0.43% ,,,,,
0.53% ,,,,, 4.57% ,,,,, 2.78%
5/28/04 ,,,,, -0.14% ,,,,, -0.36% ,,,,, -1.56% ,,,,, -0.98% ,,,,,
1.37% ,,,,, 0.66% ,,,,, 0.36%
10/6/04 ,,,,, -1.12% ,,,,, -2.92% ,,,,, -2.46% ,,,,, -2.62% ,,,,,
-2.84% ,,,,, -1.64% ,,,,, 0.22%

The first occurrence appeared about six weeks prior to the ultimate peak of
the Great Bull Market that ended on March 24, 2000, (as defined by the highest
close of QQQQ).

The second was roughly in the middle of the bull run off the October 2002
lows.

The third occurred 21 trading days before the final of three highs during the
gradual downtrend beginning January 20, 2004, and ending on August 12 of that year.

The fourth run of seven upward days was observed about 40% between the August 2004 low and the most recent high on last December 14.

Three out the four were followed by small, but tradable, short term declines.
However, in all instances the larger trend continued upward with larger gains
to be made. Today the market obliged with a 0.73% decline in the QQQQ. Of
course, the infrequent nature of this event provides us with little in the way of
statistical significance, but the charts may tell the story.

Comparing the first and second columns, the gains (losses) for the first and
second days were:

Date ,,,,, 1st Day ,,,,, 2nd Day
2/8/00 ,,,,, -3.53% ,,,,, 3.28%
8/19/03 ,,,,, -0.25% ,,,,, 1.08%
5/28/04 ,,,,, -0.14% ,,,,, -0.22%
10/6/04 ,,,,, -1.12% ,,,,, -1.82%

Thus, on the basis of the limited amount of statistical information
available, the prognosis for tomorrow's trading is mixed at best with a clear bias to the upside on a closing basis. However, the first two instances appeared in
strong bull trends versus the existing intermediate term downtrend already in
progress; and today's decline was accompanied by an increase in trading volume (not considered in the statistics presented above), suggesting a more bearish perspective for the short term. After that, further gains would not be
surprising.

KM