Ryska raketen efter ATH

Till mojas!

Efter mina inläggfunderingar #22 och #27 och kloka ord från bla dig, i hafor's "Ryska raketens bränsle" från - 050703, så tog jag beslutet och skiftade ganska tunkt över hela mitt fondinnehav till ryska fonder... den 21 juli noterades bytet klart.

Fram till i dag har värdet på hela mitt fondinnehav ökat med 3,36%

Försöker lägga in originalsträngen härunder som LÄNK!... hoppas det fungerar

LÄNK! 

//Sextra




"Vanitas vanitatum: Ett liv, ett kors, ett datum" - Nils Ferlin


Hemsida

"Russian stocks resume growth



RBC, 03.08.2005, Moscow 14:59:21.

Shares of Russian companies have resumed their growth after a slight downward correction. On the RTS exchange, RAO UES, LUKoil, Rostelecom and Sberbank are advancing. At the same time, Norilsk Nickel and Surgutneftegas are being traded lower. Trade volume on the RTS classic market reached $15m at 2 p.m. Gazprom has hit another record high of RUR95.9 (approx. USD3.36) per share. On the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange, blue chips have grown 0.5 percent on average.

The Russian stock market has fundamental grounds for advancing further, a trader has told RBC. He believes investors should track not only the dynamics of Russian exchanges but that of key world markets as well. Market participants are optimistic and expecting further growth today, another trader said. High oil and metal prices are contributing to the market's upward trend. The RTS index is likely to reach 800 to 815 points in the near future. "

Mvh
ex nihilo

"03.08.2005 19:01



In other stock market developments, the well-known trading saying goes "Buy into stocks on rumors and sell on facts". Quite recently news agencies wired that international rating agency Fitch Ratings has upgraded Russia's long-term foreign and national currency ratings to BBB from BBB-.

Looking back to the history, it is plain to see that rating upgrades or the release of some anticipated upbeat news often turned out to be the last straw which triggers a decline.

By mid-session the market has been on a steady growth track. Stocks took slight jumps, 1-1.5%. Gazprom locals led the pack after testing another all-time high and raising its market cap by another 2%.

The market experienced a slide after the rating upgrade news item broke. There was plenty of red on the screen. As of 4:30 pm Moscow time most stocks traded 0.3-0.5% lower than Tuesday?s close, except for UES (+0.9%) and gas giant Gazprom (+1.6%).

In the interim, it remains unclear whether the rating upgrade will become a Buy signal. On the one hand, market players are witnessing a powerful uptrend and all-time highs by stocks and RTS Index as a whole. On the other hand, investors have to deal with "a fait accompli". Who will come out on top in the current environment? Time appears to be the only ruler.

Anyway, the rising trend has not yet run into any roadblocks. Therefore, investors are well advised to hold long positions. "

mvh
ex nihilo

RTST satte IDH=ATH=875,66 idag innan den vände ner till close=860,52. 

Blir intressant att följa resten av veckan.

"Fakta upphör inte att existera bara för att man inte bryr sig om dem" - Aldous Huxley

RTST gjorde en "tvärtom" mot gårdagen. Började dagen med nedgång i stort sett direkt med IDL=857,08 för att därefter dra vidare uppåt igen med close= 874,51 och IDH=874,90, dvs mycket nära gårdagens nya ATH=875,08.

hafor

"Framgång består av en mängd små segrar"

Någon som vet ticker för ryska indexet på Yahoo ? Om den nu finns där längre. (Fanns förut) 

// Sandmark
Undvik torsk, använd Fishnet

TA av Ingemar Carlsson 050804

"Moskvabörsen
RTS index 781
RTS var upp på 794 som högst under onsdagen. Detta är nu den nya rekordnoteringen för detta index. Den förra toppen infann sig vid 786 den 12 april 2004.
Nedgången under onsdagen efter rekordet är helt logiskt, då marknader ofta ger reaktioner i index och enskilda aktier omkring tidigare toppnoteringar.

Nedgången skapade dessutom en klassisk "key reversal", vilket inte nödvändigtvis måste leda till någon större nedgång men är ändå en signal till att vara beredd på en period av vinsthemtagningar.
Rekylen sammanfaller dessutom med en tillfällig topp i oljepriset och därmed kan en reaktion på 5-6 procent vara naturlig, där index bör kunna söka sig till 750-nivå inför ett avgörande.

Den långsiktiga trenden är stigande med alla sin högre bottnar i uppgången, vilket med stor sannolikhet ger en fortsättning uppåt på sikt fram till dess en lägre topp infinner sig och visar på ett trendbrott."

050804

" The rally continues on the Russian stock market.

Thursday is seeing a sustained rally on the Russian stock market. Wednesday?s losses in most stocks were regained in the morning trading, while some securities, for instance, Gazprom (+3%) hit their new all-time highs. At noon, the media wired that the draft decree on Svyazinvest?s privatization was approved by the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Rostelecom spiked 5% within a few minutes on the heels of the news. UES slightly underperforms the market (+0.8%) but this is likely a temporary trend. The market is only lacking positive news flow on utility sector reform for further frontal growth. Benchmark RTS edged up 1.2% and is hovering around 790. In our opinion, the 800 milestone will be surpassed before long and the market will continue to drift north."

Här är en bra länk med nyheter och kommentarer

Russian Stock Market Blog

Mvh
ex nihilo

#6 Du kan ladda ner för RTST från Yahoo om du anger RTST.RS som tickersymbol. Dock har jag märkt att de ibland missar någon dag. Du kan se alla dagar listade sedan 1998 här . 

"Framgång består av en mängd små segrar"

Trots bra drag idag på index (RTST +1,63%) så mäktade bara den bästa fonden med +0,5% tack vare att dollarn tappade ännu mer mot kronan. Dollarn har ju tappat 4% sedan förra onsdagen mot kronan!

Samtidigt har RTST stigit 4,44% under samma tid.

Idag gick fonderna så här:

Så här mycket har fonderna ändrats sedan onsdags, dvs när dollarn tappat 4% och RTST stigit med 4,4%

Ganska tydligt hur mycket dollarn påverkar fondkursen!

hafor 

"Framgång består av en mängd små segrar"

..."Traders are therefore expecting RTS index to reach 798,1 points by mid September and 822,4 points by mid December."...

RTS

Mvh
ex nihilo

#10 RTSI (som är det index de pratar om) har redan nått 799 idag 5 augusti så deras prognos har redan överträffats!  

"Framgång består av en mängd små segrar"

#8

Tack, fungerade perfekt ! 

// Sandmark
Undvik torsk, använd Fishnet

Fram till i dag (050809) har jag en värdeökning på mitt fondinnehav på 4,08%

När jag hoppade på den 20/7 tänkte jag mig möjligheten att ligga kvar till fram i feb-mars/-06. --någonting

Nu börjar det kännas något osannoligt att det skall fortsätta i denna framfart fram till dess...

Någon eller några rekyler borde rimligtvis infinna sig... är det någon som tycker sig kunna uttyda något mer än vaga signaler 

//Sextra




"Vanitas vanitatum: Ett liv, ett kors, ett datum" - Nils Ferlin


Hemsida

Det finns möjligheter att RTS fortsätter att stiga...

050805

" - Ser man till den ekonomiska tillväxten under andra kvartalet blev den starkare än vi förväntat oss och jag tror att det finns fundamentala förutsättningar för att börsen fortsätter uppåt, säger Erik Wigertz."

050808

"Benchmark RTS is consolidating above the 800 milestone, stocks enjoy demand across the board and no signs of a correction are in sight so far."

"Based on the futures contracts' prices at the end of the trading session on August 5, market participants are expecting RTS index to reach 810,5 points by mid September and 820,9 points by mid December."

050809

"Given the lack of a downbeat news flow and bullish sentiments of market players, there is a strong possibility that a 2-month uptrend still has enough fuel to go north. "

"Specialists expect the market to grow on record oil prices and investors' positive mood. "

Mvh
ex nihilo

RTST tar sig idag förbi 900 punkter 

// Sandmark
Undvik torsk, använd Fishnet

Nu 903,87 

Marknadskommentarer:

 
"Equity Market 01-05.08.2005

Last week the bullish sentiment dominated the
Russian market. The correction sparkled on
Wednesday by the Fitch upgrade was short
lived, and for the week RTS reached its new
high of 803.22, up by 3.12%. The "blue chip"
MSCI Russia index rose 3.46% to 603.55 while
MSCI Emerging Markets added 2.18% to
615.71.
Total equity trading turnover on the MICEX
Stock Exchange amounted to USD 2.0b and
USD 1.6b worth of shares changed hands in
foreign trading (76.9% of this turnover in
London).
Last week Russian companies continued
publishing their 6-month RAS financials, among
them the regional telcos, including Centre
Telecom, Dalsvyaz, Uralsvyazinform, Volga
Telecom and MGTS. The decent growth
reported in the statements went almost
unnoticed by market participants. First, this is
due to RAS statements having limited
usefulness (these are not consolidated and are
only indicative of general trends) and, second,
due to fresh news on Svyazinvest privatization
overshadowing them. The Minister of Economic
Development and Trade German Gref said the
Ministry of the Interior had approved the sale of
the state stake and the government would
consider the draft presidential decree on the
privatization in the nearest future. The news
revived investor interest in telecom stocks, which
recently have underperformed the market
overall.
Sistema approved the dividend policy for the
coming three years, stipulating the payout ratio
of 2% of its US GAAP net income.
TNK-BP opened the voluntary programme of
share exchange for minority shareholders
in 14 of its subsidiary companies. The
programme will last until 30 September and
shareholders can swap their shares into shares
of TNK-BP Holding at the predetermined ratios.
The ongoing restructuring of the company will
result in the new oil "blue chip" on the market,
which may happen by the end of the year.
Meanwhile, TNK-BP still seems to have
unsettled tax claims. The Audit Chamber
accuses the company of using transfer pricing
and violating licence agreements. The Ministry of
Natural Resources said it would verify the
compliance with licence agreements.
The oil company Urals Energy placed 32% of its
shares on the London Stock Exchange, raising
USD 144m. The IPO was more than five-fold
oversubscribed.
The French oil major Total officially recalled its
request to purchase 25% stake in Novatek, thus
confirming its intention to abandon the
announced deal following the Novatek IPO.
The retail company Seventh Continent plans an
additional share issue for the amount of 15.5%
of its current capital to raise USD 150m to
finance expansion plans.

2 - 8 August, 2005

 
The first week of August began and ended with records on the RTS. The Index reached a historic maximum in the 780s on Monday, and finally went beyond 800 points on Friday to close at 803.22, up 3.12% from a week earlier.

Volumes were unusually large, peaking at nearly $60m on Thursday. The enthusiasm was natural in a week when oil prices reached new historic levels, Fitch finally upgraded Russia's sovereign rating, and the Russian government gave a convincing assurance that Svyazinvest privatization is on track.

The oil price surge, caused by Iran's decision to ignore US pressure and death of the Saudi monarch, ensured that Lukoil led the charge last week. The stock rose 3.9% and dominated trading. UES was not far behind in volume terms, though it underperformed the Index with a rise of 2.9%.

The Fitch upgrade on Wednesday provoked profit taking, which rolled the Index back to 780 before economy minister, German Gref, said that Russian police have finally agreed to let Svyazinvest off the list of "strategic enterprises", giving a green light for privatization and making telecoms the leaders of a new market surge on Thursday.

Thanks to the Svyazinvest news, Rostelecom was 7.3% higher last week, and RTOs were scattered in an impressive growth range from 13.7% for North West to 6.65% for Center Telecom.

09.08.2005 Moscow 15:26:40.

The Russian stock market is characterized by a growth in the bulk of securities today. On the MICEX and RTS exchanges, blue chips grew within a range of 0.5 percent. LUKoil (up by 2 percent) is the top gainer. RAO UES and Sverbank are the only companies declining on the market. By 2 p.m., the RTS index grew by 0,25 percent to 812 points. The trade volume on the RTS classic market stood at USD24m.
Experts say that the market analysis based on oil prices and the budget reveals that the RTS index is likely to hit 970 points in the long run.

09.08.2005 17:27

Aug 9. Benchmark RTS has gained more than 20% since the beginning of summer from 670 to 814. Stock quotes of oil firm Lukoil played a great role in the benchmark's upturn, since LKOH shares jumped by a whopping 44% (!) from its previous May-registered low of Rub 884.09 to an all-time high of Rub 1,272.99, hit today.

What triggered such an explosion-like, almost irrepressible rally?

There are several reasons. First, it is the buying spree on the part of US oil major ConocoPhillips which intends to up its stake in Lukoil to 20% by the end of 2006.

Second, another upswing in global petroleum prices is also of importance. No matter what oil analysts say, black gold prices are on a steady upward track which has an immediately impact on stock quotes of all oil producers, especially Lukoil.

Third, Russia's number one oil producer has stayed aloof from various political intrigues which send shock waves among corporate stocks from time to time.

All these factors allowed Lukoil not only to ramp up its market cap, but also hit its record high for 23 times (!) since early summer.

The rising trend seems to have enough strength to show further down the road. The bulls' positions are solid as rocks and the bears will face an uphill struggle to win back even a single foot of positive territory. Therefore, holding long positions is the best tactics at the present time. "

Mvh
ex nihilo

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

"Russian stocks head steadily up at opening



RBC, 10.08.2005, Moscow 12:24:27.All securities traded on the Russian stock market opened with a steady upward movement. Both on MICEX and the RTS, share prices rose by up to 0.5 percent. Analysts expect a moderate rise on the market today, for foreign investors present on the market would push share prices up.

Some industry watchers forecast the RTS index to rise from 860 points to 900 points by the end of 2005. As to the Russian stock market on the whole, they expect a rather short and insignificant correction after a two-month period of growth. Yet, the market needs such a correction on the verge of autumn. Next week, a slight correction is possible due to lower activity of foreign investors.

The oil price, and hence the stock market, have reached historic highs, and that is a natural trend, analysts say. They only wonder why it should have happened in August, a traditionally unstable month in Russia. It's also important that Russian stocks are growing simultaneously with shares on other emerging markets, which makes the process steadier "

Mvh
ex nihilo