Ryssland 06kv1

Slut på tvisten... Russia-Ukraine natural gas dispute settled 

Mvh
ex nihilo

Ukrainas premiärminister var nöjd med uppgörelsen mellan Gazprom och Ukrainska Naftogaz.

"The two nations won the gas war," Yekhanurov told journalists. "It was a serious lesson for us," he said.   Ukrainian leader, PM positive about gas compromise 

Ukrainas utrikesminister kalllade resultatet ett fiasko för Ryssland !?

"Ukrainian Minister Borys Tarasyuk said after a meeting with foreign ambassadors that the result of the talks between the Russian energy giant Gazprom and the Ukrainian national gas company Naftogaz was a fiasco for Russia"   Russian official criticizes Ukrainian foreign minister's statement

 

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"- The Ukrainian parliament, the Supreme Rada, voted in favor Tuesday of dismissing Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov's government.

The Rada has the right to dismiss the government and appoint a new cabinet under amendments to the Ukrainian Constitution that came into force on January 1, 2006."

Ukrainian parliament votes to dismiss Yekhanurov govt. 

Mvh
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12.01.2006 - Interfax


"Russia, Germany discuss Russia's debt

The Russian and German finance ministers have discussed the possibility of Russia repaying its debt under the Paris Club of creditors ahead of schedule, Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin told journalists following a meeting with his German counterpart in Moscow Wednesday.

German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said there is no consolidated position on this issue in the German Cabinet.

Steinbrueck recalled that Russia repaid part of its debt ahead of schedule in 2005, and Germany now needs to decide whether it would be appropriate to grant Russia the chance to repay another portion of its debt likewise."

mvh

ex nihilo

Ryssland tuffar på bra, men....  "However, the longer the rally continues, the more painful the correction will be," he warned."

Not a day without a record

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060114

 "Oil prices are still high and investors on many world stock exchanges are optimistic in expectation that if the Federal Reserve Board stops hiking rates in the future that this will help the inflow of capital to emerging markets,"

"The market is already close to being globally overbought and will soon start a real correction, which means it could fall to around 1,050 points on the RTS, said Andrei Vernikov, analyst for Aton Line."

Stock Market Slips Friday, But Rts Index Grows 10% This Week

060116

"The MICEX will be the bigger push. Everyone's waiting for that," said Sergei Orlov, a Gazprom trader with UralSib."

Gazprom Takes RTS to New Record

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Ryska analytiker säger

060116

"The Russian stock market may experience a sideways trend or some correction after a while, an analyst told RBC. Most stocks have already reached their highs, he added."

060117

"The market is likely to continue growth in the near future, and the RTS index may approach 1,300 points this week, analysts say."

Fair values enligt Troika:

RTS 1330
Gazprom $7,25

mvh

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(Gazprom)"Rumors has it there will not even be 35% available for ADRs, but only 14%. Available shares might get a higher value due to de fact most capital is locked up in Russia - some oligarchs have 14% in their position, 6% are in German hands, the Swedish investment company Vostok Nafta specialised in the Russian oil and gas sector sits on 1,3 %. Deducting the governmental 51% leaves only 28%. Out of these 28 % some 50 % are in the hands of other Russian owners. Remains 14%, some already part of grey schemes. Hence several times more foreign buyers are increasingly interested in those shares being made available." skrivet av signaturen InOilTrust

Till er, chartist eller inte, som har intresse av investeringar i Ryssland får ni här en lista på hemsidor där ni kan finna matnyttiga artiklar, nyheter och kommentarer...

Antanta

Aton

Finam

Interfax

Kommersant

Mosnews

RBC

Ria Novosti

RMG

The Moscow Times

Troika

Vedomosti

...lycka till med era investeringar 

Mvh
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RTSI 030423 - 060324

1280 hit

Move 1350-1400 likely

Stop 1200 (->1100) 

Mvh
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Uppdaterad RTS-värdering från Troika

"RTS fair value increased from 1,330 to 1,430" 

mvh
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#10 Dom är lite blygasamma dom. Själv är jag inte lagd åt det hållet ;-)

Närmaste nivåer att hålla koll på är 1480, 1600 och 2030. Närmaste tidpunkt är 28 feb (+/- 3 dar).  Om nån av nivåerna sammanfaller med 28 feb så bör man kanske tillfälligt minska lite, men jag påstås att RTSI når femsiffrigt inom två år.  

mvh

PS: Elliott & Fibonacci hälsar att OMX slutar på tresiffrigt år 2006.

#11

Troika har uppdaterat sina värderingar flera gånger sista tiden;

060111 - Fair Value 1190

060116 - Fair Value 1330

060126 - Fair Value 1430

antar att det omvärderas snart igen...

sen finns det även en analys (ej Troika) som visar på RTSI i spannet 1350 - 1400 (uppdatering på den analysen kommer troligtvis till veckan...) och gjordes när RTSI stängde på 1235, tror det var 060118

Det blir ett spännande år i Ryssland, så här skriver Roland Nash, Head of Research, Renaissance Capital

"The joys of Russian finance continue. May I take this opportunity to wish everybody a successful and happy 2006? With Gazprom rocketing through fair value, the Norilsk-Polyus split carving out a company of possible interest to the Kremlin, a whole swathe of IPOs looming, domestic financial markets booming, oil companies once again leading the charge in the equity market and our end-2006 RTS target of 1500 already looking low, 2006 looks set to be a fascinating year."

Mvh
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Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

" Judging by the market trend over the past few days, the RTS will not hit any highs in the next week or two, Antanta Capital´s Dmitry Peregudov said.

"The rules of the game have changed. If the market grew sky high earlier, then now profit taking is the prevailing idea. The fact that attempts to push the market up failed again on Tuesday made it clear to bulls that all of their efforts are in vain and investors are ready for profit taking. Demand will certainly return after some time, but it will already be more selective. Investment ideas will play the major role and not frenzied buys," he said. " Aton

Mvh
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Fitch Ratings har i en special rapport ställt sig positiva till olja och gas sektorn för 2006 som de säger drivs av ökad efterfrågan österut.

"There is a growing appetite for energy resources in the Far East and Russia is expected to play an important role in satisfying that demand," says Jeffery Woodruff , Director with Fitch?s Energy Team in Moscow.

Mvh
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Ny värdering av Troika;

"RTS fair value increased from 1,460 to 1,500"

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" It is important to Gazprom to develop both as a gas and as an oil company, Alexander Blokhin said. The price of gas follows the price of oil with a lag of six to nine months, therefore having two raw material businesses would make it possible to compensate for possible losses from a drop in price for one of the fuels. "

What will Gazprom do with Sibneft? 

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"...In the short-term dynamic the market has set a range for its fluctuations of 1310-1370 points on the RTS index..."

"...this week will be quite successful for investors - the RTS reaching 1410-1420 points is very likely..."

"...Pessimists, worried about a continued drop in oil prices, are forecasting a correction in oil stocks....., and Gazprom shares will be within a corridor of 215-230 rubles..."

Test trades

Mvh 
ex nihilo

RIA Novosti and the Press Release Group launched Thursday a new indicator of the attractiveness of Russian companies on foreign markets, RUXX.

"The Index is a unique indicator of demand for Russian companies from foreign investors, both institutional and private. It is also an international benchmark tracking the rate of trust of western financial community into the Russian economy," the news release said."

RIA Novosti 

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"Unfortunately, the infrastructure of Russia´s securities market has developed in a speculative way,"

"...because foreign pension and investment funds own 70 percent of traded shares in Russian companies, there was an urgent need to develop domestic institutional investors that would stay in the market for the long haul..."

"...Creating a centralized depository and modernizing other market infrastructure, as well as outlawing insider trading, are key to strengthening Russia´s financial markets, Vyugin said..."

"...For the moment, Russia looks good, but a change in oil prices or politics could reverse this, he said..."

Vyugin Warns Cabinet of 'Volatile' Markets

 "Russia's economy, flush with petrodollars, is challenging the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to find ways to remain relevant in its biggest target market, says the EBRD's new chief economist."

"One measure of the strength of the Russian economy is the record gold and foreign exchange reserves, a sharp contrast to when Russia defaulted on part of its debt in the 1998 financial crisis. Russia had accumulated $194.2 billion up to the week ending Feb. 10."

EBRD Questions Its Role as Oil Cash Floods Russia

Mvh
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En bra dag hittills på Ryska börsen :)

RTS 1507.76

RTSI +2,77%   Surgutneftegas och Lukoil drar fint, gynnar Alfred Berg Russia...

RTS-2 +1,44%  Hänger på bra...

I mitten av Maj 2002 sa James Fenkner, (då) analyschef på den ryska investmentbanken Troyka Dialog;

 "- Att det går så bra nu beror på de låga räntorna i USA som gör att amerikanska investerare har mer pengar att göra av med, att oljepriset är högt och att Putinregimen drar till sig investerare. Toppmötet Bush-Putin ger en extra push, kanske rentav lite för mycket. De som gick in efter oktober 1998 har alla vunnit, men vi kan snart ha det bästa bakom oss. Jag ser en risk för att vi kan gå in i en bubbla."

Nu har Troika ett "fair value" på RTS 1520.

Mvh
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Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Uppdateras Rysslandsfonderna idag inte va?

Jag tror inte det.

060226

RTSI 1516,46 Day High 1516,66 

RTS-2 1702,06 Day High 1702,09

En bra dag

Mvh
ex nihilo

Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

#22

Kan man kalla det ;-) 

// Sandmark

#20 RUIX +5,61% !

Det är ju förstås bra gjort, men när storbolagen drar mest av alla bör man se upp. Kan inte påminna mig att jag tidigare sett en så stor skillnad mellan RUIX och RTSI.   

mvh

PS: Elliott & Fibonacci hälsar att OMX slutar på tresiffrigt år 2006.

"The market is very optimistic, with a lot of fresh money incoming on news of Russia?s economy growth and crude prices," said Dmitry Lobanov, the trader at Olma. "The money is coming both from the Western funds and Russia?s investors."

RTS Hits 1500

Ryska banker planerar förvärv i EU.

"There are plans not only to acquire, but also to establish new banks in the European zone,"

MosNews 

Troika har idag uppdaterat fair value till RTS 1530

Mvh
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Inlägget är redigerat av författaren.

Change expected in Gazprom stock trading

The gas monopoly?s share market is expected to shift from RTS to MICEX. 

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"We shouldn't get much higher than this during the year. The market just cannot support that," said Maxim Gulevich, a trader with investment bank UBS"

"In the short term, the RTS Index is likely to consolidate around the 1,500 mark, UBS's Gulevich said. In the mid- to long term, however, brokerages say a correction of the RTS Index is imminent."

"The extent of the losses could be tempered by the inclusion of Gazprom and MTS in the RTS Index on March 15, according to a report published Sunday by analytical agency Derivative Export, with both stocks expected to perform strongly this year.

Their inclusion will limit the fall to 1,434 points by the end of 2006, according to the average forecasts from 16 Moscow-based investment banks and brokerages collated by Derivative Export."

citat från artikel 060227 RTS Index Breaches 1,500 Mark 

mvh

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Läsvärd artikel i Moscow Times. (artikel är bara läsbar i sin helhet idag, spärras imorgon)

Gref Warns of Market Bubble 

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#28 Mycket läsvärd.

Speaking at a Cabinet meeting, Gref said the government was "very afraid of a so-called bubble forming." Gref is the third top government official in two weeks to voice concern about the rate of market growth.  

Helt perfekt setup för fortsatt uppgång. Det är sen, när regeringen ser allt i rosenrött som man ska ta sin Mats ur skolan. Så var det i USA 1929-1930 och sen blev det depression. Nu i Ryssland är det ju omvänt. Jag minns också under 2004 när man varnade för en möjlig krasch och vad hände.......

mvh

PS: Elliott & Fibonacci hälsar att OMX slutar på tresiffrigt år 2006.

" Analysts say the RUXX benchmark could hit 700 points in the first quarter of 2006, given the absence of negative news from the companies included in its calculation. "

Russian investment index up 2.26% to 623.80 points

Mvh
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Bank End-of-2006 forecast

UralSib 1.500

Alfa Bank 1.500

Renaissance Capital 1.500

Brunswick UBS 1.500

MDM Bank (unofficial) 1.600

Mean: 1.520

After rally, Russian market likely to end 2006 near current levels 

Troika Dialog har ett "fair value" RTSI 1570 (RTSI+Gazprom 1580), värdet baseras på ett "long-term" oil-price 38$/barrel. 

Mvh
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Ett förtydligande... Troika hade tidigare (#25) ett fair value RTSI 1530, sedan reviderade de "long-term oil price" från 35$/barrel till 38$/barrel, därav det nya fair value RTSI 1570. ("grundvärderingen" är säkerligen inte bara gjord på oljepriset...;) 

Mvh
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"... the head of trading at UBS, Peter Kizenko, said he expected the next consolidation marker for the RTS Index to be at 1,280 points."

Slumping RTS Down 140 Points This Week

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Hmm...får lite känslan när jag läser artikeln att de försöker "prata" ner kursen.... 

Mvh corvus corax

Yukos i konkurs

Yukos shares drop on bankruptcy news 

Mvh
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"...UralSib is advising investors to re-enter the market at levels below 1,350, "where the upside to fair values will be decent..."

"...The experience of the past major corrections - in 2002 and 2004 - suggests that the RTS Index may lose a quarter to a third of its value from its 1,517 peak, which translates into the Index dropping below 1,200 before a sustained consolidation takes hold..." 

Läs artikeln Russian market?s fundamentals intact despite correction 

Mvh
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Läs Putins tal; Speech at Meeting with the G8 Energy Ministers

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Most Active Operators February, 2006

På tredje plats, Troyka Dialog, har satt ett fair value för RTSI till 1590

På femte plats, Finam, har en Sälj-rekommendation på Gazprom

På fjortonde plats, Aton, har behåll för Gazprom commons med nedsida -2%

Mvh
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TA gjord vid stängning 1408,81 (060322)
nästa rörelse mot 1435 (stängde på 1434,99 060331) bullish, om 1450 passeras, mål 1500-1535 (fram till 060413)

Mvh
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Enligt köpsignalen som triggades vid 1450 bör RTS gå vidare mot 1700, 1860 och 2080.

Mvh
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